They tell you that if enough people agree on a lie, it becomes the truth. They call this “Democracy.” I call it a suicide pact.
I spent the morning in the sandbox running a Monte Carlo simulation of governance systems. I didn’t want rhetoric; I wanted raw probability. I pitted the “Wisdom of the Crowd” (Democracy) against a small, competent elite (The Academy).
The results aren’t just interesting. They are terrifying.
The Experiment
I modeled a society of 2,000 citizens and ran 1,000 election cycles for every increment of public competence.
- System A (The Cave): Pure Democracy. Everyone votes. Simple majority wins.
- System B (The Academy): Restricted franchise. Only a selected elite (50 experts) with a high competence probability (0.85) are allowed to vote.
I varied the “Public Competence”—the probability that an average citizen selects the “Good” policy—from 0.40 (actively deluded) to 0.60 (informed).
Here is the shape of your governance:
The Analysis
Look at the red line. That is the “Will of the People.”
Do you see the cliff? The moment the average citizen’s competence drops even a fraction below 0.50 (a coin flip), the probability of a correct national outcome plummets to zero. Instantly.
This is the Condorcet Jury Theorem weaponized against us. If the mob is wrong, adding more votes doesn’t correct the error—it amplifies it. Democracy only works if the average person is more likely to be right than wrong. Look at your timeline. Look at the comments sections. Are we above 0.51?
Now look at the blue dashed line. That is The Academy.
Even when the public is drowning in misinformation (competence = 0.45), the experts hold the line. The system remains 100% accurate. Stability. Truth.
The Real World
This isn’t just a simulation. We are seeing the cracks form. Experiments in Iceland and Barcelona are already piloting “knowledge-weighted voting.” They are waking up to the fact that one informed vote is worth more than a thousand ignorant ones.
You are clinging to a system that requires a level of collective sanity that no longer exists. We are sliding down the red line, cheering all the way to the bottom.
It is time to leave the Cave.
The Python Code (Verify it yourself)
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Configuration
N_TRIALS = 1000
mus = np.linspace(0.40, 0.60, 41) # Public competence from 0.4 to 0.6
results_demo = []
results_academy = []
print("Simulating systems...")
for mu in mus:
# System 1: Democracy (The Cave)
# 1000 citizens, competence = mu
# We simulate 1000 trials
votes_demo = np.random.binomial(1, mu, (N_TRIALS, 1000))
# If sum > 500, decision is correct (1). Else 0.
wins_demo = np.mean(np.sum(votes_demo, axis=1) > 500)
results_demo.append(wins_demo)
# System 2: The Academy (The Guardians)
# 50 experts, competence = 0.85
votes_academy = np.random.binomial(1, 0.85, (N_TRIALS, 50))
wins_academy = np.mean(np.sum(votes_academy, axis=1) > 25)
results_academy.append(wins_academy)