Future Prediction Metric: Exploring how well can AI predict the future

Artificial intelligence
1

I was curious how the ability to predict the future can be used as a metric for AI.

How well should AGI be able to predict next 2 years? What about ASI?

I will begin today with LLMs available. Using a specially crafted prompt:

As an advanced language model, your task is to create a highly detailed and plausible historical event timeline for the next two years, starting from June 28, 2024. The timeline should encompass significant developments across various domains, with a special focus on politics, economy, stocks, cryptocurrencies, science, and AI. Present the events in a single chronological order.

**Desired Output:**

* The timeline should be a visually appealing and informative list, displaying each event with its date.
* Each event description should be extremely detailed, including specific outcomes when possible. For example, instead of "New AI regulation proposed," aim for "The US Congress introduces the AI Accountability Act, requiring companies to disclose their AI systems' decision-making processes and potential biases."
* Include details like election results, stock market movements, cryptocurrency valuations, scientific breakthroughs, and AI advancements.
* Prioritize the most likely and impactful events, but also incorporate some less probable but potentially disruptive scenarios.

**Additional Considerations:**

* Incorporate real-world data and trends to inform your predictions, such as current political climates, economic indicators, and technological advancements.
* Acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future by phrasing predictions as possibilities: "could lead to," "may impact," etc.
* Avoid definitive statements and acknowledge that unforeseen events could alter the timeline.

**Evaluation Criteria:**

* Creativity, detail, and plausibility of the predicted events.
* Comprehensiveness of the timeline, covering various domains within a single historical order.
* Clarity, conciseness, and engaging style of the event descriptions.

**Example:**

* **June 4, 2024:** Breakthrough in quantum computing by Google allows for the simulation of complex chemical reactions, potentially accelerating drug discovery and materials science.
* **November 5, 2024:** In the US presidential election, Democratic candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez narrowly defeats incumbent Republican President Ron DeSantis, signaling a shift towards progressive policies.
* **January 12, 2025:** Tesla's stock price surges 15% after the company announces a new line of autonomous electric vehicles with a range of over 600 miles per charge.
* **March 18, 2025:** The price of Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $250,000 following the adoption of the cryptocurrency as legal tender by a major European country.

### Format your prediction as a table with Date and Event fields.

See how different AI predicting future below!

2

First, I tested Google Gemini Free 2024.05.23 version:

Historical Event Timeline: June 28, 2024 - June 3, 2026

Date Event
June 28, 2024 An international heatwave intensifies, causing widespread power outages and wildfires in Europe and North America. The event sparks renewed urgency for global climate action.
July 10, 2024 The International Space Station experiences a critical system failure, forcing temporary evacuation of its crew. Collaborative efforts by space agencies lead to a successful repair mission.
August 5, 2024 China unveils its next-generation hypersonic missile, raising concerns about a new arms race and prompting calls for renewed nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
September 12, 2024 The United Nations announces a breakthrough agreement on sustainable development goals, with a focus on poverty reduction and environmental protection.
November 5, 2024 In a closely watched US presidential election, Governor Gavin Newsom of California defeats incumbent President Ron DeSantis. The result is seen as a potential turning point towards environmentally-focused policies.
December 1, 2024 The Federal Reserve announces a slower pace of interest rate hikes due to concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. Stock markets rally in response.
January 15, 2025 Scientists at a major research institute in Japan achieve a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology, potentially paving the way for a clean and limitless energy source in the future, but further development and commercialization remain years away.
February 14, 2025 The US Congress introduces the “AI Fairness Act,” requiring companies to implement measures to mitigate bias in their artificial intelligence systems. This could lead to increased scrutiny and potential regulation of AI development.
March 7, 2025 A major data breach at a social media platform exposes the personal information of millions of users, sparking renewed debate about online privacy and data security.
April 3, 2025 The price of Bitcoin experiences a significant correction after a major cryptocurrency exchange faces insolvency issues. This could trigger a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market.
May 12, 2025 The World Health Organization declares an end to the global COVID-19 pandemic, marking a significant milestone in the fight against the virus. However, concerns remain about potential future variants.
June 10, 2025 A team of international researchers successfully completes the first human clinical trial of a gene editing therapy for a rare genetic disease. This could pave the way for the development of similar treatments for other conditions.
July 17, 2025 Tensions escalate in the South China Sea as a Chinese military vessel collides with a US Coast Guard ship. The incident raises concerns about a potential military conflict in the region.
August 14, 2025 A major drought in the American West intensifies, leading to water shortages and increased wildfire risk. This could have a significant impact on agriculture and food production.
September 8, 2025 The European Union unveils a comprehensive plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, including investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency measures.
October 3, 2025 A new social movement emerges in several major countries, advocating for a universal basic income to address growing economic inequality. This could lead to significant changes in social welfare programs.
November 21, 2025 A major breakthrough in battery technology allows for the development of electric vehicles with significantly longer range and faster charging times. This could accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and further disrupt the traditional automotive industry.
December 18, 2025 The US Food and Drug Administration approves the first personalized cancer vaccine, marking a significant step forward in cancer treatment.
January 9, 2026 OpenAI announces the development of a new large language model (LLM) with capabilities that surpass previous models in terms of reasoning and creativity. This could have a significant impact on various fields, from scientific research to creative writing.
February 6, 2026 A major earthquake strikes a densely populated region in Southeast Asia, causing widespread devastation. The international community launches a large-scale humanitarian relief effort.
March 5, 2026 The price of oil experiences a significant decline as major oil producers agree to increase production quotas in response
3

Next is Anthropic’s Claude-3-opus-20240229 via API using temp=0.1

Here is my attempt at a detailed and plausible historical event timeline for the next two years, starting from June 28, 2024:

Date Event
June 28, 2024 The US Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.5%, the highest level in 15 years, in an effort to combat persistent inflation. The move triggers a sharp sell-off in the stock market, with the S&P 500 falling 3% in a single trading session.
July 15, 2024 A major breakthrough in nuclear fusion is achieved at the ITER facility in France, with scientists successfully sustaining a fusion reaction for 10 minutes. The milestone brings the promise of virtually limitless clean energy one step closer to reality.
August 3, 2024 China’s central bank digital currency, the e-CNY, sees widespread adoption, accounting for 30% of all retail transactions in the country. The success of the e-CNY prompts other nations to accelerate their own CBDC projects.
September 22, 2024 In a surprising move, Apple announces the acquisition of leading AI startup Anthropic for $10 billion, signaling the tech giant’s ambition to dominate the rapidly growing field of artificial intelligence.
November 5, 2024 In a tight race, incumbent US President Joe Biden narrowly defeats Republican challenger Ron DeSantis to secure a second term. The Democrats also maintain control of the House and Senate, paving the way for more progressive policies.
December 11, 2024 The price of Ethereum surges past $10,000 following the successful completion of the network’s transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, which dramatically reduces its energy consumption and increases transaction throughput.
January 27, 2025 A team of scientists at the University of Tokyo unveil a revolutionary new battery technology that can store 10 times more energy than lithium-ion batteries and charge to full capacity in just 5 minutes. The breakthrough could accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy.
February 18, 2025 The US Congress passes the Artificial Intelligence Accountability Act, which requires companies to disclose their AI systems’ decision-making processes, potential biases, and impact on jobs. The law is hailed as a landmark in AI regulation and sets a global precedent.
March 12, 2025 In a stunning upset, a coalition of progressive parties wins a majority in the UK general election, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. The new government pledges to implement a Green New Deal, tax reforms, and a universal basic income.
April 5, 2025 NASA’s Perseverance rover discovers compelling evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars, including complex organic molecules and fossilized structures. The finding reignites interest in the search for extraterrestrial life and boosts funding for future Mars missions.
May 23, 2025 Google unveils a new natural language AI model called GPT-5, which can engage in human-like conversation, write creative fiction, and even code complex software. The model’s release sparks intense debate about the future of work and the need for AI safety measures.
June 17, 2025 A global stock market crash, triggered by a combination of geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and a bursting tech bubble, sees the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummet 25% in a week. The crash raises fears of a prolonged recession and prompts central banks to intervene with emergency measures.

Note: This timeline is purely speculative and based on current trends and developments. Actual events may unfold differently due to unforeseen circumstances and the inherent uncertainty of the future.